The positive outlook for Timmins' financial future isn't exactly reflected in its housing market, as prospective homebuyers have become increasingly skittish in the face of the global economic chill.
Despite the strengthening local economy, total sales volume for residential properties is down 36 per cent from the same period last year. This shift marks a possible return to more traditional levels for the city, which has seen an explosion in the housing market over the last four years, according to local experts.
"I think we've sort of peaked and plateaued, and where we go from here really depends on the economy," says Scott Bragagnolo, president of the Timmins Real Estate Board and broker with Claimpost Realty Ltd.
"I don't see it getting better, and if anything, prices will stay where they are or decline in the long term. In comparison to other places, we are doing really well, but people tend not to see that and get pessimistic about how things are."
The average list price has also dropped for residential properties, sinking to $131,000, down nine per cent over the last year.
This doesn't necessarily mean that prices themselves are sinking, says Bragagnolo, adding that more buyers have simply begun bargain shopping and looking at lower price ranges. What's more, the cyclical nature of the industry means a sudden burst of consumer activity could drive prices back up to 2008 levels.
Low inventory levels are contributing to the problem, due in part to the late start to the summer, when more market activity typically arises. Also to blame is the general slowdown in new home construction, which has characterized Timmins for the last two decades as a result of a growing reliance on strictly "on demand" building.
In particular, hot-selling items such as large, well-maintained three-bedroom bungalows are in short supply. In the rare moments when they become available, such homes sell anywhere from $225,00 to $285,000, which are still cheaper than in many larger Northern Ontario centres, Bragagnolo points out.
"It's still a great time to be on the market, and if people are looking to put their houses on the market, they should do it now because we're not seeing the pressures that other markets are seeing," says Bragagnolo. "That said, you'll get as much now as you're going to get in the next three or four years."
Part of this confidence stems from the knowledge that, despite the lower housing inventory, many residents continue to look at the housing market,
This is particularly true of frustrated would-be renters who, drawn to town by mining prospects but stymied by low vacancy rates, are looking at becoming homeowners instead.
Although the rental market vacancy rate has slackened somewhat since last year, the current vacancy rate sits at 3.5 per cent, according to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation's April 2009 statistics.
This has sparked proposals for the first new apartment buildings in the city in more than a decade.
Local company GR Belanger Enterprises has received approval for a $1.6 million, 18-unit building to be located on 6th Avenue. A second, $2.7-million 27-unit building has also been proposed, this one on Brousseau Avenue.
"There's one heck of a demand, a real big demand," says Gilles Belanger, owner of GR Belanger Enterprises. "We haven't even built the thing and already we've got more than 25 names of people wanting to move in."
Despite the clamor for more units, Belanger suspects the general lack of new multi-unit rental properties in Timmins will continue. The shrinking number of available tradespeople in the city continues to increase construction prices, and banks are offering few loaning opportunities for commercial rental properties such as apartment buildings, he says.
