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Let's declare war on carbon

American presidents like to declare war on abstractions. Lyndon Johnson went to war on poverty, Ronald Reagan went to war on drugs, George W. Bush went to war on terror. But these were all such timid wars.

American presidents like to declare war on abstractions. Lyndon Johnson went to war on poverty, Ronald Reagan went to war on drugs, George W. Bush went to war on terror. But these were all such timid wars.

Our prime minister has a chance to launch the war to end all wars.

Mr. Harper can declare war on carbon. It is hard to imagine him as a hero to all humanity, but the role is his for the taking.

A few weeks ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in the next five years we will reach the point at which it is impossible to hold climate change to safe levels. We are heading for the cliff. The IEA isn’t an environmental organization or a collection of climate scientists – it is a collection of nice conservative energy analysts. It was established by the major industrial countries after the oil crisis of 1973–1974. Its purpose was to ensure that the industrialized countries had enough cheap oil.

Now the IEA is saying that the last chance to win the war on carbon will be "lost forever” if there isn’t bold action soon. Mr. Harper, are you listening? Are you this generation’s Winston Churchill? Can you face the danger others ignore? Or are you our Neville Chamberlain with your head in the sand?

The key economic idea from the IEA is “irreversible investment.” Resources tied up in irreversible investment cannot be used for other purposes. If Noah had built an underground bomb shelter instead of his ark, for example, his story would have turned out badly. Bomb shelters don’t float.

Coal plants and oil pipelines can’t be used to fight climate change. The IEA says that the world is investing so much in coal and gas infrastructure that by 2017 the world power system will be “locked in.” To hold climate warming to the “safe” level after that we will have to start tearing plants down.

The IEA also calculates that every dollar invested in clean technology today does the work of $4.30 after 2020. In other words, one dollar today frees up $4.30 for our children in nine years. That is a rate of return of 17.6 per cent. One billion dollars a year for the next nine years would save almost $40 billion for our kids.

But where could we get a billion a year when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is desperate to cut government spending? It turns out there is lots of the kind of gravy that Toronto Mayor Rob Ford talks about. In 2010, the Canadian Ecumenical Justice Initiative, known as KAIROS, found that Canada spends $1 billion per year subsidizing the oil and gas industries. These are some of the richest and most profitable companies in the world, so subsidies for them are super-gravy.

Worldwide, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010. The road to climate hell seems to be paved with gravy for the fossil fuel companies. The worldwide subsidy for renewables in 2010 was only $64 billion.

Ending the Canadian gravy train wouldn’t reduce carbon emissions a lot. The Americans and the Chinese will still buy oil and coal, we just won’t be subsidizing them to take our resources. Shifting the oil subsidies to conservation and alternative energy for the next nine years would make a difference, however. And according to the IEA it could save our grandchildren $40 billion.

Now you may not have noticed, but we have not been having a lot of children. Chances are as the climate deteriorates, we will be having even fewer. If trends continue each of our kids will be supporting twice as many geezers as we did during our working lives. Since we plan to have them pay our medical costs and our pensions once they pay off their student loans, does it make sense to leave them a crippling carbon debt as well?

Before long the financial crisis will force Mr. Harper to launch another stimulus package. Instead of subsidizing more irreversible investments in oil, pipelines and coal, he could use the same money to launch his war on carbon. He could create jobs, save money for our children, and save the world. It is his one chance to be a hero.