Peter Hall

There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope.

Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession.

One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse.

It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted.

It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable.

As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief.

If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us.

On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population.

A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal.

This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less.