Peter Hall

What makes for a true recovery? Some are counting on government stimulus. Others say it can’t happen without revived international trade. Still others say it’s about prices, or a confidence thing.

Up is in vogue these days. It almost seems that there is pressure to unearth upbeat economic stories, and make a lot out of them.

Remember where the global recession all began? It’s perhaps a distant memory now, but it was early in 2006 that US housing markets first faltered, setting off successive waves of weakening.

Kudos to everyone! Consumer prices have tumbled rapidly, and are declining in most large countries – but hardly anyone is talking deflation.

Resilience is not a word that has been used to describe much of Brazil’s post-war economic experience – but it’s creeping into current vocabulary. In past economic cycles, Brazilian volatility was legendary, and its effects on the economy, severe.

The world’s best roller coasters are hard pressed to match the recent gyrations in natural gas prices. From last year’s extraordinary heights, prices plunged 42% in one month, swifter than for most commodities, and a huge surprise to many analysts.

A year ago, Europe was being touted as the resilient zone. Inflation was the big worry, not recession. Interest rates were hiked 25 basis points on July 9th, 2008. But the zone’s analysts were wrong. Along with the rest of the world, Europe tumbled.

Like it or not, that’s where the world economy is at present. Six months of freefall down a pretty sheer cliff, and everyone’s still a bit dazed, wondering if this is a V-, a U- or an unusually W-shaped valley.

What’s gotten into the loonie? Months of calm were shattered in late April as the dollar soared by 12 cents in 29 days.

For economy-watchers, a new month brings a rush of the latest employment figures. It hasn’t been a particularly pleasant point in the calendar lately, and there’s a lot of concern about what next month’s release will hold.