More than 700,000 Ontarians unemployed by 2021, says Seneca president

More than 700,000 Ontarians will be unemployed by 2021 due to inadequate skills and education says Dr. Rick Miner, Seneca College's president emeritus.

Ontario is not alone in this problem. In fact, it's better off than some other provinces and states in North America, he says.

There is a looming demographic and labour market crisis which has the potential to shake the foundation of our society and economy, Miner states in a report entitled People Without Jobs, Job Without People: Ontario's Labour Market Future.

“We have to find ways to increase our labour size and labour force participation and that is by looking at immigration and under-represented groups and ask ourselves 'are there ways we can increase their involvement in the labour force?”Miner says, in a face-to-face interview with Northern Ontario Business.

Conservatively speaking an estimated 75 per cent of the workers in Ontario will need postsecondary education or training by 2021, if they are to be employable in the province's new economy.

As the baby boomers retire there will be a startling decline in prime working years. Simultaneously, the need for a knowledge-based labour force will increase dramatically, so the province will need a larger workforce and increased skills. The prime working years in Ontario will fall dramatically to 61 per cent by 2030 and continue to decrease by 59 per cent by 2050, he states. The labour force will have to support a larger and larger number of people who will need and expect a variety of services, some of which will become very expensive such as heathcare, pensions and old age security.

Problem is, these services will be on the backs of a shrinking population of working citizens. Demand for labour in general is projected to outstrip supply.

But solving one part of the equation won't solve the other part, he says. The province can improve on education but they may be short on people. Or, it can improve the labour force but unless they improve the education status, it will still be short qualified people. Increasing labour force participation is key. To do that, one has to look at groups that have historically been under-represented in the labour force such as youth, women, older workers, Aboriginals, immigrants and persons with disabilities.

Opening the doors to immigration will provide some relief. It takes 10 years before an immigrant can achieve parity with a Canadian in the workforce, in spite of their credentials coming into the country. Changes have to be made in the near future to position the workforce for the next decade and 10 years is too long a wait. However, the federal government is starting to assess potential immigrant's education before they enter Canada. This way, the candidate can determine if she or he wants to relocate, knowing the job opportunities available to them.

The second process being considered is called the Canadian Experience Class using high schools and universities as immigrant recruitment vehicles while the person is studying in the country. The advantage is the person can obtain Canadian work experience, education and language (culture) - the three barriers hindering older style immigrants.

“Moving from a labour economy to a knowledge based economy requires training,” Miner says.

Another reason for low labour force participation is many pre- workforce candidates are still in school. Many students go to university and then try to land a job after graduation only to find out they have to go back to a college for hands-on practical knowledge.

“The education systems are not efficient,” he says. “Rather than a four year degree they have to partake in a six year program which drives up their student loans.”

Both institutions need to work more cohesively to create a consolidated program. There is a move in the United States and recently in Canada to go to a three year bachelor of arts which then can be coupled with college experience to give a rounded education and a reduction in debt load.

Students wanting to transfer credits from one university to another come against roadblocks and more expense as credits from a previous school are not recognized.

“There is too much institutional interest and not enough human interest.”

Retirees want to work differently than they did when they had to work. They are keen to accept occasional employment, job sharing, part-times jobs and entrepreneurism. Historically, society thought too much in black and white, either your retired or not. Now those line are becoming blurred.

Perhaps society can utilize the knowledge obtained by these people.

Businesses would be wise to set up a mentoring system and find creative ways to transfer that knowledge to maintain the education and skill level in house.

“I don't think they have an option,” Miner says.

It is always cheaper than trying to acquire those skill sets after seasoned employees have retired. This breeds a high degree of loyalty between the employer and employee and a message that companies, province, state and nation are thinking ahead.