I have no idea how many elections I’ve observed but it is fair to say in three score and a few years I’ve seen enough to fill a bread box. Sometimes you know exactly what is going to happen and you await the crowning with enthusiasm or despair.
One of the most predictable elections in Ontario history was the defeat of Bob Rae’s NDP government in 1995. Nothing was going to save him and he knew it and so did everyone else.
Of course sometimes you know exactly what is going to happen and it doesn’t. The last federal election would be a case in point with the astonishing rise of the NDP in Quebec. Less dramatically was the comfortable return of the Liberals in Ontario in the 2007 election helped immensely by John Tory, the leader of the Conservatives, who got hung up on extending public funding to faith-based schools. It became a central issue and he was on the wrong side. Tory was too stubborn to revise his position. It lost him the election. A good man with a fatal flaw; pride, or was it principle? Politics is the art of the possible and principles are generally the first casualty of politics. Today most parties, no matter what they believe in, do extensive polling to determine their platform. They have principle but as Groucho Marx said, if you don’t like these I have others.
The coming election in Ontario is a puzzle. Six months ago very few people (including me) would have given Dalton McGuinty much of a chance. He was well behind in the polls, key people were leaving the government and there was a general sense of fatigue with his mildly interventionist government (environment, HST, energy, etc.).
So what has changed? Interestingly, not Dalton.
I think the difference is Rob Ford, Michelle Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry and the near collapse of American governance. Strange bedfellows I know.
We don’t live in our communities anymore. We live in Marshall McLuhan’s Global Village.
We are as informed about Tahrir Square in Egypt as we are about potholes on May Street in Thunder Bay. Omnipresent digital and cable media determine the information informing our world view.
In southern Ontario, it is impossible to underestimate the stupidity of the new Rob Ford administration in Toronto. The huge battle over libraries, goofy waterfront development schemes, police and fire department layoffs, an anti-gay undertone and private garbage pickup is more than people bargained for in Toronto. Makes a lot of people nervous. Ford is a godsend for the Liberals.
Secondly, the ascendancy of the Tea Party in the United States, along with their heroes Rick Perry, Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann, is enough to scare anybody about being a so-called Conservative. From the rejection of the science of evolution to the willingness to default on U.S. government bonds, it promotes unease and incredulity on this side of the border. Tim Hudak has tried to have it both ways. His policies are not much different from Dalton’s with the exception of the environmental file, where there is no comparison, but he throws red meat at his Tory supporters to keep them angry and voting. He does this by declaring he wants prisoners cutting grass along the 401 and calling new Canadians “foreigners” when it comes to a new hiring incentive proposed by the Liberals. It connects him to more extreme policies even though otherwise he avoids it. It is on purpose and may be a mistake.
The elephant in the room is that Ontario is broke. No one is talking about it. The reason is simple: us. We have imported this tax rage from the United States which dictates thou shall not raise taxes. It is impossible to fix our problems without raising taxes. Both McGuinty and Hudak know this. It serves neither of them to talk about it. The bobbing and weaving will begin the day after the election.
I have never joined a political party. I’m interested in policy, period. I prefer the Liberals' temperament and priorities currently, but the differential on the environmental file makes it no contest.
A chastened Liberal majority would be best for Ontario. What they need to do better is balance the debt and manage more capably.
