Peter Hall insists all the talk of anti-trade policies around the world from leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump is mostly bluster and wants to show others how to take advantage when economies start to rebound.
That was the main message the vice-president and chief economist of Export Development Canada (EDC) delivered at the Let's Talk Exports luncheon conference on May 30 at the Caruso Club in Sudbury.
He said he sees plenty of opportunities on the horizon for companies and insisted the global economy is starting a rebound.
However, it was not all good news.
He stressed companies had to be ready and willing to invest even in the face of political uncertainty from the United States and the U.K.
“I'm being realistically optimistic,” he said in an interview.
“We didn't do this here, but at a conference in New York City we had some in-the-moment polls during a slide show and asked, do you think he (Trump) is going to blow up trade, do you think he is going to do nothing, or do you think he is going to do something?
“The overwhelming response was a lot of it is just bluster. That's in America, the heart of the financial centre with country-risk analysts. These guys knew their stuff and they know what's going on.” He offered his expertise on why seemingly counter-productive events like Brexit and the election of Trump occurred in the first place.
Using a Donald Trump-branded made-in-China tie as a prop, he pointed out that even people like Trump, who ran on a campaign of imposing tariffs of foreign goods cannot ignore the fact companies rely on international supply chains to produce goods.
“Americans are among the most price sensitive consumers in the world. They will not stand for paying more,” he said.
There are signs of hope, he said. Housing markets are starting to rebound, which, he said is one of the strongest indicators that people are willing to invest and spend on big ticket items again.
More millennials, the youngest group of consumers, he said, are also beginning to return to the workforce and are the ones driving the investment. “We need more evidence, but so far I am pleased by what I'm seeing,” he said.
“We are coming out of an extended slump, but we also had extended growth that we were not used to. What we are saying at EDC is let others run and create a vacuum for Canadian companies to fill.”
