Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted?

China caught the world’s eye with its rapid response to recession. The response wasn’t unfounded: growth slowed abruptly in the second half of 2008 to somewhere between 2% and 4% - a crisis for a country that needs 7%-8% to prevent serious dislocations. Export activity faltered, property markets plunged, unemployment swelled, and the confidence engendered by China’s long string of economic successes began to crack. China saw it first, but the world was concerned when the news spread.

Authorities leapt into action. China pulled out all the stops with an aggressive fiscal stimulus plan amounting to over 13% of its GDP – many times the 4% of GDP that the average OECD country has undertaken. Monetary stimulus has been similarly aggressive, and is estimated by some to have lifted China’s total package to as much as 17% of GDP. In addition, China’s trade has benefited from the link between the yuan and the ever-weaker USD. It would be hard to hide the impact of these factors.

The effect on the economy has indeed been noticeable. China likely has no peer in its ability to implement stimulus quickly, and the evidence was all over 2009 numbers. In the first quarter, capital spending was rebounding strongly. Industrial production increased steadily. Retail activity quickly rose to 15% above year-ago levels. The world was suitably impressed – and relieved.

Some hail this as a new era – that China is coming of age, and demonstrating a new ability to ‘go it alone’. That conclusion is probably premature. Nobody doubts that the last cycle created massive consumer-related excesses in Western markets that are currently being worked off. Key emerging markets like China geared production activity and trade to accommodate these excesses, and with global demand now much lower, emerging markets face the need to recalibrate production to the new reality. But China’s speedy return to hefty investment growth suggests that this didn’t occur, and it’s highly unlikely that overnight, excess production was soaked up by domestic consumers.

Could near-term growth falter? The WEF study says yes. Worries are even being expressed inside China, and with good reason. Stimulus measures are already having less effect. Although spending programs will continue throughout the year and beyond, they are likely through their growth phase, leaving it to the rest of the economy to step into the gap and generate growth. And worries that monetary stimulus has reflated the real estate bubble while running down bank reserves have led to significant monetary tightening. Upcoming economic stats might well be a lot weaker.

China may yet get lucky. Western markets are adjusting, and are expected to begin recovering in the latter half of 2010. If China can make it until then, revived global trade could well save the day.

The bottom line? China is currently walking a tightrope that bridges the end of stimulus effects and true global recovery. We can all hope that this high-wire is short, and that China remains sure-footed.