Doug Murray prefers thinking ahead only in three-year increments.
The former mill manager at Resolute Forest Products knows how quickly fortunes in business and the economy can collapse without warning.
“What can you project?” said Murray, Thunder Bay’s economic development CEO. “If you would have looked back in 2011 with all the hype surrounding Cliffs (Natural Resources) and the Ring of Fire, you would have thought it would already be here in spades by now, and we would by directly influenced by it.
“Now we’re smarter and we know this process is going to take a little while longer,” said a chuckling Murray.
The Thunder Bay Community Economic Development Commission (CEDC) released its new Strategic Plan in mid-October, outlining the department’s priorities for the next three years.
Once heavily reliant on forestry and transportation, the northwestern Ontario city is becoming more diversified with a growing medical research institute, post-secondary expansion, and advances in the high-tech sector.
The 20-page “Transitioning to Growth” document touches upon established and budding growth opportunities in entrepreneurship, mining, business retention and expansion, innovation in manufacturing, training and education, logistics and supply chain, among other areas.
The local unemployment rate remains steady at 4.9 per cent and seasonally adjusted employment stands close to 63,000 jobs, said Murray, but the No. 1 issue concerning the local business community is where are the skilled employees going to come from?
Industry attrition from forestry mill closures and youth outmigration has Thunder Bay fighting the clock and it needs to attract more talent to town.
“We’re going to be influenced by the demographic changes sooner than the rest of the country,” said Murray. “It’s only going to continue to become an issue as more of the baby boomers retire.”
In 2006, when the CEDC was incorporated, few were talking about a knowledge-based economy and the Thunder Bay Regional Research Institute was still in its infancy.
Today, there’s more diversity of employment, and high-tech, automated manufacturers like XLV Diagnostics, makers of portable mammograms, need top-end talent as they move prototype products through the commercialization stage.
“We have to attract and retain people like that as we build that type of cluster,” said Murray.
But there are perceptions that Northern cities like Thunder Bay have to overcome.
The solution is to promote the “value proposition” of home affordability, cultural activities, and connectivity to southern Ontario with 15 flights a day to Toronto on three carriers.
Murray is onboard with international recruiting efforts by Confederation College and Lakehead University, which has landed approximately 1,200 students currently enrolled at both institutions. He’d like to boost that number to 3,000, supplemented by young people from southern Ontario.
“Keeping international students in the North for four years means a better retention rate.”
With many small retailers closing due to lack of succession planning, the CEDC has stepped up with a website showing businesses for sale in the hopes of steering newcomers to Canada to the northwest.
On the manufacturing front, Murray’s team is investigating whether middle-tier manufacturers can work with companies like Bombardier to make components as part of a local supply chain and he would like to assist companies make better traction in the Alberta oilsands working as subcontractors.
Murray would like to assist middle-tier local manufacturers in diversifying by working with companies like Bombardier to investigate whether parts made elsewhere in Ontario or Mexico can be made in the northwest.
On the mining front, the city has been preparing for years to be a regional supply hub. While exploration in the northwest has slowed to a crawl, there is the potential for five gold mines to open in a short period in Red Lake, the Rainy River district, Geraldton, and Dryden that could prove beneficial to the city.
